Dare we find some space for optimism in KZN? The province has seen COVID-19 numbers decline sharply over the past 48 hours, with active cases dropping by more than 27 000 on Tuesday – almost 30% of the overall total.

Latest COVID-19 figures on Wednesday 13 January

KZN has been one of the worst affected regions for this second wave of coronavirus, and cases had risen sharply since a second variant of this disease was discovered on our shores. Although it’s no deadlier than the original virus, it is more transmissible – meaning that the chances of someone vulnerable coming down with COVID-19 increases.

On Monday, KZN had roughly 93 000 cases that were active. The following day, this dropped to little over 66 000. The fall is massive, if not unprecedented in this country – but to what can we attribute this sudden shift?

KZN Health MEC Nomagugu Simelane-Zulu has quickly moved to stress that this doesn’t serve as confirmation for infections peaking in the province. The trend over the last few days has been positive, but there’s a logical explanation…

Why have active cases dropped rapidly in KZN?

A large number of those who have fallen ill did so over a ‘two-or-three day period’ during the festive season. That means they will have tested positive around the same time, and therefore, are likely to have recovered at roughly the same time. Of course, not every recovery is such a linear process – but it would account for this bizarre discrepancy.

“What we need to indicate is that the number of infections in the past four or five days has dramatically gone down. Whether this is us being past the peak or just a slump for a couple of days we are not entirely sure…”

“However, the issue here is that we had a big number of patients who were infected in two or three days and all of those, when they exit [recover], they will exit around the same time.”

Nomagugu Simelane-Zulu

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Presh JM Reporter

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